2026 AIME II 第 7 题

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7.

反复掷一枚标准公平六面骰。每次掷出 1122 时,Alice 得到一枚硬币;每次掷出 3344 时,Bob 得到一枚硬币;每次掷出 5566 时,Carol 得到一枚硬币。Alice 和 Bob 都在 Carol 得到任何硬币之前各自至少得到两枚硬币的概率可写成 mn\frac{m}{n},其中 mmnn 是互质正整数。 求 100m+n100m + n

A standard fair six-sided die is rolled repeatedly. Each time the die reads 11 or 2,2, Alice gets a coin; each time it reads 33 or 4,4, Bob gets a coin; and each time it reads 55 or 6,6, Carol gets a coin. The probability that Alice and Bob each receive at least two coins before Carol receives any coins can be written as mn,\frac{m}{n}, where mm and nn are relatively prime positive integers. Find 100m+n.100m + n.

答案:754
知识点:几何分布对立事件概率求和
难度评级:2840
解答:

每次掷骰分别是 Alice、Bob、或 Carol 的概率都是 13\frac{1}{3}。事件成功当且仅当第一次 Carol 之前的结果中, Alice 至少出现两次且 Bob 至少出现两次。第一次 Carol 出现在第 k+1k + 1 次的概率为 (23)k13\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^k \frac{1}{3},在此条件下,前 kk 次形成一个等可能的 Alice/Bob 字符串, 共 2k2^k 种。当 k3k \ge 3 时,坏字符串为至多一个 Alice 或至多一个 Bob,数量为 (k+1)+(k+1)=2k+2(k + 1) + (k + 1) = 2k + 2,且没有字符串同时属于两类坏情形。因此 P=k413(23)k(12k+22k). \begin{aligned} P &= \sum_{k \ge 4} \frac{1}{3}\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^k \\ &\quad {}\cdot \left(1 - \frac{2k + 2}{2^k}\right). \end{aligned}

第一部分为 k4(23)k=1627\sum_{k \ge 4} \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^k = \frac{16}{27}。第二部分中, k0k+13k=1(11/3)2=94\sum_{k \ge 0} \frac{k + 1}{3^k} = \frac{1}{(1 - 1/3)^2} = \frac{9}{4},所以 k42k+23k=2(9412313427)=211108=1154. \begin{aligned} &\sum_{k \ge 4} \frac{2k + 2}{3^k} \\ &= 2\left(\frac{9}{4} - 1 - \frac{2}{3} - \frac{1}{3} - \frac{4}{27}\right) \\ &= 2 \cdot \frac{11}{108} = \frac{11}{54}. \end{aligned}

因此 P=13(16271154)P = \frac{1}{3}\left(\frac{16}{27} - \frac{11}{54}\right) =132154=754= \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{21}{54} = \frac{7}{54},所以 100m+n=700+54=754100m + n = 700 + 54 = 754

Each roll is an Alice roll, a Bob roll, or a Carol roll, each with probability 13.\frac{1}{3}. The event succeeds exactly when the rolls before the first Carol roll include at least two Alice rolls and at least two Bob rolls. The first Carol roll is roll k+1k + 1 with probability (23)k13,\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^k \frac{1}{3}, and given this, the first kk rolls form one of 2k2^k equally likely Alice/Bob strings. For k3k \ge 3 the bad strings — at most one Alice, or at most one Bob — number (k+1)+(k+1)=2k+2,(k + 1) + (k + 1) = 2k + 2, and no string is bad in both ways. Hence P=k413(23)k(12k+22k). \begin{aligned} P &= \sum_{k \ge 4} \frac{1}{3}\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^k \\ &\quad {}\cdot \left(1 - \frac{2k + 2}{2^k}\right). \end{aligned}

The first piece is k4(23)k=1627.\sum_{k \ge 4} \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^k = \frac{16}{27}. For the second, k0k+13k=1(11/3)2=94,\sum_{k \ge 0} \frac{k + 1}{3^k} = \frac{1}{(1 - 1/3)^2} = \frac{9}{4}, so k42k+23k=2(9412313427)=211108=1154. \begin{aligned} &\sum_{k \ge 4} \frac{2k + 2}{3^k} \\ &= 2\left(\frac{9}{4} - 1 - \frac{2}{3} - \frac{1}{3} - \frac{4}{27}\right) \\ &= 2 \cdot \frac{11}{108} = \frac{11}{54}. \end{aligned}

Therefore P=13(16271154)P = \frac{1}{3}\left(\frac{16}{27} - \frac{11}{54}\right) =132154=754,= \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{21}{54} = \frac{7}{54}, and 100m+n=700+54=754.100m + n = 700 + 54 = 754.

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