2025 AIME I 第 13 题

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13.

Alex 用两条相互垂直、相交于圆心的直径把一个圆盘分成四个象限。他又在圆盘内画了 2525 条线段, 每条线段都通过随机选择圆周上位于不同象限的两个点并连接它们来得到。求这 2727 条线段把圆盘分成的区域数的期望。

Alex divides a disk into four quadrants with two perpendicular diameters intersecting at the center of the disk. He draws 2525 more line segments through the disk, drawing each segment by selecting two points at random on the perimeter of the disk in different quadrants and connecting these two points. Find the expected number of regions into which these 2727 line segments divide the disk.

答案:204
知识点:期望值区域计数分类讨论
难度评级:3270
解答:

以概率 1,1,没有任何随机端点或内部交点彼此重合,所以逐条加入弦时,每条新弦使区域数增加 11 加上它在圆盘内部穿过已有弦的次数。从一个区域开始,期望总数为 1+27+E1 + 27 + E,其中 EE 是内部相交线段对数的期望。两条直径相交一次。一条随机弦的端点落在 66 种象限对之一,每种概率为 16\frac{1}{6}。当端点的 xx 符号相反时,该弦恰好穿过竖直直径; 这在 66 种象限对中的 44 种发生,所以它与每条直径相交的概率为 23\frac{2}{3} 与两条直径的交点总数平均为 43\frac{4}{3}:这 2525 条弦与直径贡献 1003\frac{100}{3} 个期望交点。

对两条随机弦,按它们的象限对分类,共有 3636 种等可能的有序组合。若一条用象限 1,31, 3,另一条用 2,42, 4,则端点必然交替出现,所以它们必相交:有 22 种组合。若两对象限相邻且不相交,例如 {1,2}\{1, 2\}{3,4}\{3, 4\},则两条弦绝不相交:有 44 种组合。在其余 3030 种组合中, 端点是否沿圆周交替,化为比较共享象限内的独立均匀点;例如,一条 {1,3}\{1,3\} 弦与一条 {1,2}\{1,2\} 弦相交,当且仅当两个象限 11 中的点按某一特定顺序出现。因此由对称性,概率为 12\frac{1}{2}。所以两条随机弦相交的概率为 21+40+301236=1736.\frac{2 \cdot 1 + 4 \cdot 0 + 30 \cdot \frac{1}{2}}{36} = \frac{17}{36}.

(252)=300\binom{25}{2} = 300 对弦贡献 3001736=4253300 \cdot \frac{17}{36} = \frac{425}{3} 个期望交点, 所以 E=1+1003+4253=176E = 1 + \frac{100}{3} + \frac{425}{3} = 176,区域数期望为 1+27+176=2041 + 27 + 176 = 204

With probability 1,1, no random endpoint or interior crossing coincides with another, so adding chords one at a time, each new chord increases the region count by 11 plus the number of existing chords it crosses inside the disk. Starting from one region, the expected total is 1+27+E,1 + 27 + E, where EE is the expected number of interior crossing pairs. The two diameters cross once. A random chord's endpoints land in one of the 66 quadrant pairs, each with probability 16.\frac{1}{6}. The chord crosses the vertical diameter exactly when its endpoints have opposite xx-signs, which happens for 44 of the 66 pairs, so it meets each diameter with probability 23\frac{2}{3} and both diameters together 43\frac{4}{3} times on average: the 2525 chords contribute 1003\frac{100}{3} expected crossings with the diameters.

For two random chords, condition on their quadrant pairs (3636 equally likely ordered combinations). If one uses quadrants 1,31, 3 and the other 2,4,2, 4, the endpoints always alternate, so they always cross: 22 combinations. If the two pairs are adjacent and disjoint, such as {1,2}\{1, 2\} and {3,4},\{3, 4\}, the chords never cross: 44 combinations. In each of the other 3030 combinations, whether the endpoints alternate around the circle reduces to comparing independent uniform points inside shared quadrants — for example, a {1,3}\{1,3\} chord and a {1,2}\{1,2\} chord cross exactly when the two quadrant-11 points come in one specific order — and the probability is 12\frac{1}{2} by symmetry. So two random chords cross with probability 21+40+301236=1736.\frac{2 \cdot 1 + 4 \cdot 0 + 30 \cdot \frac{1}{2}}{36} = \frac{17}{36}.

The (252)=300\binom{25}{2} = 300 chord pairs contribute 3001736=4253300 \cdot \frac{17}{36} = \frac{425}{3} expected crossings, so E=1+1003+4253=176E = 1 + \frac{100}{3} + \frac{425}{3} = 176 and the expected number of regions is 1+27+176=204.1 + 27 + 176 = 204.

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