1987 AIME 第 13 题

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所有题目均经美国数学协会(MAA)官方合法授权使用。

13.

给定一个由互不相同的实数组成的数列 r1r_1r2r_2\ldotsrnr_n,可以通过一次或多次“冒泡遍历”将其按升序排列。对一个给定数列进行一次冒泡遍历,是先比较第二项与第一项,并且仅当第二项较小时交换两项;接着比较第三项与第二项,并且仅当第三项较小时交换两项;依此顺序进行,直到把最后一项 rnr_n 与它当时的前一项比较,并且仅当最后一项较小时交换两项。

下面的例子展示数列 11998877 如何经过一次冒泡遍历变成数列 11887799。每一步中被比较的两个数都加有下划线。

1987198718971879\begin{aligned} \underline{1}\quad\underline{9}\quad8\quad7\\ 1\quad\underline{9}\quad\underline{8}\quad7\\ 1\quad8\quad\underline{9}\quad\underline{7}\\ 1\quad8\quad7\quad9 \end{aligned}

n=40n=40,初始数列的各项 r1r_1r2r_2\ldotsr40r_{40} 互不相同,并以随机顺序排列。经过一次冒泡遍历后,初始时记作 r20r_{20} 的数最终处在第 3030 位的概率为最简分数 pq\frac{p}{q}。求 p+qp+q

A given sequence r1,r_1, r2,r_2, ,\ldots, rnr_n of distinct real numbers can be put in ascending order by means of one or more “bubble passes.” A bubble pass through a given sequence consists of comparing the second term with the first term, and exchanging them if and only if the second term is smaller, then comparing the third term with the second term and exchanging them if and only if the third term is smaller, and so on in order, through comparing the last term, rn,r_n, with its current predecessor and exchanging them if and only if the last term is smaller.

The example below shows how the sequence 1,1, 9,9, 8,8, 77 is transformed into the sequence 1,1, 8,8, 7,7, 99 by one bubble pass. The numbers compared at each step are underlined.

1987198718971879\begin{aligned} \underline{1}\quad\underline{9}\quad8\quad7\\ 1\quad\underline{9}\quad\underline{8}\quad7\\ 1\quad8\quad\underline{9}\quad\underline{7}\\ 1\quad8\quad7\quad9 \end{aligned}

Suppose that n=40,n=40, and that the terms of the initial sequence r1,r_1, r2,r_2, ,\ldots, r40r_{40} are distinct from one another and are in random order. Let pq,\frac{p}{q}, in lowest terms, be the probability that the number that begins as r20r_{20} will end up, after one bubble pass, in the 3030th place. Find p+q.p+q.

答案:931
知识点:基本概率排列过程模拟
难度评级:2450
小提示:

当比较进行到位置 jj 后,该位置上的数是原数列前 jj 项的最大值

After the comparison reaching position j,j, that position holds the maximum of the first jj original terms

大提示:

确定 r20r_{20}r31r_{31} 在前 3131 项中的相对大小排名

Characterize the relative ranks of r20r_{20} and r31r_{31} among the first 3131 terms

解答:

要使 r20r_{20} 一直向右移动到第 3030 位,它必须大于 r1,,r30r_1,\ldots,r_{30} 中的其他每一项。它恰好在第 3030 位停下的条件是 r31>r20r_{31}>r_{20}。因此,在前 3131 项中,r31r_{31} 必须最大,r20r_{20} 必须为第二大。这两个指定排名同时发生的概率为 131130=1930\frac1{31}\cdot\frac1{30}=\frac1{930}。所以 p+q=1+930=931p+q=1+930=931

For r20r_{20} to move right to position 30,30, it must exceed every other term among r1,,r30.r_1,\ldots,r_{30}. It stops at position 3030 exactly when r31>r20.r_{31}>r_{20}. Thus among the first 3131 terms, r31r_{31} must be greatest and r20r_{20} second greatest. These two ordered rank assignments have probability 131130=1930.\frac1{31}\cdot\frac1{30}=\frac1{930}. Therefore p+q=1+930=931.p+q=1+930=931.

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