2025 AIME I Problem 13

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Concepts:expected valuecounting regionscasework

Difficulty rating: 3270

13.

Alex divides a disk into four quadrants with two perpendicular diameters intersecting at the center of the disk. He draws 2525 more line segments through the disk, drawing each segment by selecting two points at random on the perimeter of the disk in different quadrants and connecting these two points. Find the expected number of regions into which these 2727 line segments divide the disk.

Solution:

Adding chords one at a time, each new chord increases the region count by 11 plus the number of existing chords it crosses inside the disk. Starting from one region, the expected total is 1+27+E,1 + 27 + E, where EE is the expected number of interior crossing pairs. The two diameters cross once. A random chord's endpoints land in one of the 66 quadrant pairs, each with probability 16.\frac{1}{6}. The chord crosses the vertical diameter exactly when its endpoints have opposite xx-signs, which happens for 44 of the 66 pairs, so it meets each diameter with probability 23\frac{2}{3} and both diameters together 43\frac{4}{3} times on average: the 2525 chords contribute 1003\frac{100}{3} expected crossings with the diameters.

For two random chords, condition on their quadrant pairs (3636 equally likely ordered combinations). If one uses quadrants 1,31, 3 and the other 2,4,2, 4, the endpoints always alternate, so they always cross: 22 combinations. If the two pairs are adjacent and disjoint, such as {1,2}\{1, 2\} and {3,4},\{3, 4\}, the chords never cross: 44 combinations. In each of the other 3030 combinations, whether the endpoints alternate around the circle reduces to comparing independent uniform points inside shared quadrants — for example, a {1,3}\{1,3\} chord and a {1,2}\{1,2\} chord cross exactly when the two quadrant-11 points come in one specific order — and the probability is 12\frac{1}{2} by symmetry. So two random chords cross with probability 21+40+301236=1736.\frac{2 \cdot 1 + 4 \cdot 0 + 30 \cdot \frac{1}{2}}{36} = \frac{17}{36}.

The (252)=300\binom{25}{2} = 300 chord pairs contribute 3001736=4253300 \cdot \frac{17}{36} = \frac{425}{3} expected crossings, so E=1+1003+4253=176E = 1 + \frac{100}{3} + \frac{425}{3} = 176 and the expected number of regions is 1+27+176=204.1 + 27 + 176 = 204.

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