2018 AIME II 第 13 题

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13.

Misha 掷一枚标准公平六面骰,直到她在连续三次掷骰中按顺序掷出 11-22-33 为止。她掷骰次数为奇数的概率为 mn\frac{m}{n},其中 mmnn 是互质正整数。求 m+nm + n

Misha rolls a standard, fair six-sided die until she rolls 11-22-33 in that order on three consecutive rolls. The probability that she will roll the die an odd number of times is mn,\frac{m}{n}, where mm and nn are relatively prime positive integers. Find m+n.m + n.

答案:647
知识点:递推概率骰子(概率)奇偶性方程组
难度评级:3270
解答:

aa 为总掷骰次数为奇数的概率;令 bb 为已经先掷出一个 11 时这个概率,令 cc 为已经先掷出 11-22 时这个概率(每种情况下都从已经掷出的骰数开始计数)。按下一次掷骰分类,并注意当计数重新开始时,已经用掉的掷骰次数会翻转所需奇偶性。从全新状态开始:若掷出 11,转到状态 bb;否则用掉一次掷骰,之后需要偶数次续程。已有一个 11 时:若再掷出 11,说明第一个 11 被浪费,需要 bb 型的偶数次续程;若掷出 22,转到 cc;否则浪费前两次掷骰。已有 11-22 时:若掷出 33,以 33 次掷骰结束(奇数);若掷出一,带着浪费的两次掷骰重回 bb 状态;否则浪费三次掷骰。因此 a=16b+56(1a),b=16(1b)+16c+46a,c=16b+16+46(1a). \begin{aligned} a &= \frac{1}{6}b + \frac{5}{6}(1 - a), \\ b &= \frac{1}{6}(1 - b) + \frac{1}{6}c + \frac{4}{6}a, \\ c &= \frac{1}{6}b + \frac{1}{6} + \frac{4}{6}(1 - a). \end{aligned}

第一个方程给出 b=11a5b = 11a - 5;把第三个方程代入第二个方程得 41b=11+20a41b = 11 + 20a,所以 41(11a5)=11+20a41(11a - 5) = 11 + 20a,从而 431a=216431a = 216a=216431a = \frac{216}{431}。因为 431431 是质数,所以 m+n=216+431=647m + n = 216 + 431 = 647

Let aa be the probability that the total number of rolls is odd; let bb be that probability given that the first roll is a 1,1, and cc given that the first two rolls are 11-22 (in each case counting all rolls). Condition on the next roll, noting that whenever the count restarts, the rolls already used flip the required parity. Starting fresh: a 11 leads to state b;b; anything else uses one roll, after which an even continuation is needed. After a 1:1: another 11 means the first roll is wasted, needing an even continuation of the bb-type; a 22 leads to c;c; anything else wastes both rolls. After 11-2:2: a 33 finishes in 33 rolls (odd); a 11 restarts at the bb-state with two wasted rolls; anything else wastes all three. Thus a=16b+56(1a),b=16(1b)+16c+46a,c=16b+16+46(1a). \begin{aligned} a &= \frac{1}{6}b + \frac{5}{6}(1 - a), \\ b &= \frac{1}{6}(1 - b) + \frac{1}{6}c + \frac{4}{6}a, \\ c &= \frac{1}{6}b + \frac{1}{6} + \frac{4}{6}(1 - a). \end{aligned}

The first equation gives b=11a5;b = 11a - 5; substituting the third into the second yields 41b=11+20a,41b = 11 + 20a, so 41(11a5)=11+20a,41(11a - 5) = 11 + 20a, giving 431a=216431a = 216 and a=216431.a = \frac{216}{431}. Since 431431 is prime, m+n=216+431=647.m + n = 216 + 431 = 647.

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