Question

Zou and Chou are practicing their $100$ -meter sprints by running $6$ races against each other. Zou wins the first race, and after that, the probability that one of them wins a race is $\frac{2}{3}$ if they won the previous race but only $\frac{1}{3}$ if they lost the previous race. The probability that Zou will win exactly $5$ of the $6$ races is $\frac{m}{n},$ where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers. Find $m + n.$

答案

Solution:

Zou wins race $1,$ so winning exactly $5$ of the $6$ races means he loses exactly one of races $2$ through $6.$ Each race after the first repeats the previous outcome with probability $\frac{2}{3}$ and switches with probability $\frac{1}{3}.$

If the loss is race $6,$ the five transitions are four repeats followed by one switch: $\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^4 \cdot \frac{1}{3} = \frac{16}{243}.$ If the loss is race $i$ for some $2 \le i \le 5,$ there is a switch into the loss and a switch back to winning, plus three repeats: $\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^3 \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^2 = \frac{8}{243}$ for each of the $4$ positions, contributing $\frac{32}{243}.$

The total is $\frac{16}{243} + \frac{32}{243} = \frac{48}{243} = \frac{16}{81},$ so $m + n = 16 + 81 = 97.$

2021 AIME I Problem 1

Solution:

Problem 1 in Other Years