2019 AIME I 第 5 题

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5.

一个运动粒子从点 (4,4)(4, 4) 出发,直到第一次碰到某条坐标轴为止。当粒子位于点 (a,b)(a, b) 时,它随机移动到 (a1,b)(a - 1, b)(a,b1)(a, b - 1), 或 (a1,b1)(a - 1, b - 1) 中的一个点, 每种概率都是 13\frac{1}{3},且与之前的移动相互独立。它在 (0,0)(0, 0) 处碰到坐标轴的概率为 m3n\frac{m}{3^n},其中 mmnn 是正整数,且 mm 不能被 33 整除。求 m+nm + n

A moving particle starts at the point (4,4)(4, 4) and moves until it hits one of the coordinate axes for the first time. When the particle is at the point (a,b),(a, b), it moves at random to one of the points (a1,b),(a - 1, b), (a,b1),(a, b - 1), or (a1,b1),(a - 1, b - 1), each with probability 13,\frac{1}{3}, independently of its previous moves. The probability that it will hit the coordinate axes at (0,0)(0, 0) is m3n,\frac{m}{3^n}, where mm and nn are positive integers, and mm is not divisible by 3.3. Find m+n.m + n.

答案:252
知识点:格路基本概率多重集排列
难度评级:2600
解答:

坐标不会增加,所以第一次到达的坐标轴上的点是 (0,0)(0,0),恰好等价于粒子先到达 (1,1)(1, 1), 然后走一步对角步。每条从 (4,4)(4,4)(1,1)(1,1) 的路径都会自动避开坐标轴,因为它的坐标始终至少为 11

一条从 (4,4)(4,4)(1,1)(1,1) 且含 dd 个对角步的路径,还含有 3d3 - d 个向左步和 3d3 - d 个向下步,总步数为 6d6 - d,排列数为 (6d)!d!(3d)!(3d)!\frac{(6-d)!}{d!\,(3-d)!\,(3-d)!}:当 d=0,1,2,3d = 0, 1, 2, 3 时分别为 20,30,12,120, 30, 12, 1。 含 6d6 - d 步的路径概率为 (13)6d\left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^{6-d},所以到达 (1,1)(1,1) 后再走到 (0,0)(0,0) 的概率为 13(2036+3035+1234+133)=1320+90+108+2736=24537. \begin{aligned} &\frac{1}{3}\left(\frac{20}{3^6} + \frac{30}{3^5} + \frac{12}{3^4} + \frac{1}{3^3}\right) \\ &= \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{20 + 90 + 108 + 27}{3^6} \\ &= \frac{245}{3^7}. \end{aligned}

因为 245=572245 = 5 \cdot 7^2 不能被 33 整除,所以 m+n=245+7=252m + n = 245 + 7 = 252

Coordinates never increase, so the first axis point reached is (0,0)(0,0) exactly when the particle reaches (1,1)(1, 1) and then takes the diagonal step. Every path from (4,4)(4,4) to (1,1)(1,1) automatically stays off the axes, since its coordinates remain at least 1.1.

A path from (4,4)(4,4) to (1,1)(1,1) with dd diagonal steps also has 3d3 - d left steps and 3d3 - d down steps, for 6d6 - d steps in all, and there are (6d)!d!(3d)!(3d)!\frac{(6-d)!}{d!\,(3-d)!\,(3-d)!} orderings: 20,30,12,120, 30, 12, 1 for d=0,1,2,3.d = 0, 1, 2, 3. Since a path with 6d6 - d steps has probability (13)6d,\left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^{6-d}, the probability of reaching (1,1)(1,1) and then stepping to (0,0)(0,0) is 13(2036+3035+1234+133)=1320+90+108+2736=24537. \begin{aligned} &\frac{1}{3}\left(\frac{20}{3^6} + \frac{30}{3^5} + \frac{12}{3^4} + \frac{1}{3^3}\right) \\ &= \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{20 + 90 + 108 + 27}{3^6} \\ &= \frac{245}{3^7}. \end{aligned}

Since 245=572245 = 5 \cdot 7^2 is not divisible by 3,3, we get m+n=245+7=252.m + n = 245 + 7 = 252.

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