2017 AIME II 第 2 题

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2.

队伍 T1T_1T2T_2T3T_3T4T_4 进入季后赛。半决赛中,T1T_1 对阵 T4T_4T2T_2 对阵 T3T_3。这两场比赛的胜者将在决赛中相遇,决出冠军。当 TiT_i 对阵 TjT_j 时,TiT_i 获胜的概率为 ii+j\frac{i}{i+j},并且所有比赛结果相互独立。T4T_4 获得冠军的概率为 pq\frac{p}{q},其中 ppqq 是互质的正整数。求 p+qp + q

Teams T1,T_1, T2,T_2, T3,T_3, and T4T_4 are in the playoffs. In the semifinal matches, T1T_1 plays T4,T_4, and T2T_2 plays T3.T_3. The winners of those two matches will play each other in the final match to determine the champion. When TiT_i plays Tj,T_j, the probability that TiT_i wins is ii+j,\frac{i}{i+j}, and the outcomes of all the matches are independent. The probability that T4T_4 will be the champion is pq,\frac{p}{q}, where pp and qq are relatively prime positive integers. Find p+q.p + q.

答案:781
知识点:基本概率独立事件分类讨论
难度评级:2070
解答:

要成为冠军,T4T_4 首先必须击败 T1T_1,概率为 44+1=45\frac{4}{4+1} = \frac{4}{5}。另一场半决赛中,T2T_2 进入决赛的概率为 22+3=25\frac{2}{2+3} = \frac{2}{5}T3T_3 进入决赛的概率为 35\frac{3}{5};决赛中, T4T_4 击败 T2T_2 的概率为 44+2=23\frac{4}{4+2} = \frac{2}{3},击败 T3T_3 的概率为 44+3=47\frac{4}{4+3} = \frac{4}{7}

因此 T4T_4 成为冠军的概率为 45(2523+3547)=4564105=256525. \begin{aligned} &\frac{4}{5}\left(\frac{2}{5} \cdot \frac{2}{3} + \frac{3}{5} \cdot \frac{4}{7}\right) \\ &= \frac{4}{5} \cdot \frac{64}{105} \\ &= \frac{256}{525}. \end{aligned} 因为 256=28256 = 2^8,且 525=3527525 = 3 \cdot 5^2 \cdot 7,这个分数已经最简,所以 p+q=256+525=781p + q = 256 + 525 = 781

To be champion, T4T_4 must first beat T1,T_1, which happens with probability 44+1=45.\frac{4}{4+1} = \frac{4}{5}. The other semifinal sends T2T_2 to the final with probability 22+3=25\frac{2}{2+3} = \frac{2}{5} and T3T_3 with probability 35;\frac{3}{5}; in the final, T4T_4 beats T2T_2 with probability 44+2=23\frac{4}{4+2} = \frac{2}{3} and beats T3T_3 with probability 44+3=47.\frac{4}{4+3} = \frac{4}{7}.

The probability that T4T_4 is champion is therefore 45(2523+3547)=4564105=256525. \begin{aligned} &\frac{4}{5}\left(\frac{2}{5} \cdot \frac{2}{3} + \frac{3}{5} \cdot \frac{4}{7}\right) \\ &= \frac{4}{5} \cdot \frac{64}{105} \\ &= \frac{256}{525}. \end{aligned} Since 256=28256 = 2^8 and 525=3527,525 = 3 \cdot 5^2 \cdot 7, this is in lowest terms, and p+q=256+525=781.p + q = 256 + 525 = 781.

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