2011 AIME I 第 12 题

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12.

六名男子和若干名女子随机排成一列。设 pp 为在已知每名男子都至少与另一名男子相邻的条件下, 至少四名男子连续站在一起的概率。求最少需要多少名女子,才能使 pp 不超过 11 百分比。

Six men and some number of women stand in a line in random order. Let pp be the probability that a group of at least four men stand together in the line, given that every man stands next to at least one other man. Find the least number of women in the line such that pp does not exceed 11 percent.

答案:594
知识点:条件概率有限制的排列不等式
难度评级:3060
解答:

设女子人数为 nn;只需考虑男女位置的模式。如果每名男子都与另一名男子相邻,则男子形成的极大连续块大小依次可能为 2+2+22+2+22+42+44+24+23+33+366。有 jj 个块的模式等价于从女子确定的 n+1n + 1 个空隙中选择 jj 个,所以 2+2+22+2+2(n+13)\binom{n+1}{3} 种模式,三个双块顺序各有 (n+12)\binom{n+1}{2} 种,单块有 n+1n + 1 种。

至少四名男子连续站在一起出现在 2+42+44+24+2, 和 66, 这几种顺序中,所以 p=2(n+12)+(n+1)(n+13)+3(n+12)+(n+1)=(n+1)2(n+1)(n2+8n+6)6=6(n+1)n2+8n+6. \begin{aligned} p &= \frac{2\binom{n+1}{2} + (n+1)}{\binom{n+1}{3} + 3\binom{n+1}{2} + (n+1)} \\ &= \frac{(n+1)^2}{\frac{(n+1)(n^2 + 8n + 6)}{6}} \\ &= \frac{6(n+1)}{n^2 + 8n + 6}. \end{aligned}

条件 p1100p \le \frac{1}{100} 变为 f(n)=n2592n5940f(n) = n^2 - 592n - 594 \ge 0。由于 f(593)=593594=1<0f(593) = 593 - 594 = -1 \lt 0,且 f(594)=2594594f(594) = 2 \cdot 594 - 594 =594>0= 594 \gt 0,最少的女子人数为 594594

Let nn be the number of women; only the pattern of men's and women's positions matters. If every man stands next to another man, the men form maximal blocks whose sizes, in order, are 2+2+2,2+2+2, 2+4,2+4, 4+2,4+2, 3+3,3+3, or 6.6. A pattern with jj blocks amounts to choosing jj of the n+1n + 1 gaps determined by the women, so there are (n+13)\binom{n+1}{3} patterns for 2+2+2,2+2+2, (n+12)\binom{n+1}{2} for each of the three two-block orders, and n+1n + 1 for a single block.

At least four men stand together in the orders 2+4,2+4, 4+2,4+2, and 6,6, so p=2(n+12)+(n+1)(n+13)+3(n+12)+(n+1)=(n+1)2(n+1)(n2+8n+6)6=6(n+1)n2+8n+6. \begin{aligned} p &= \frac{2\binom{n+1}{2} + (n+1)}{\binom{n+1}{3} + 3\binom{n+1}{2} + (n+1)} \\ &= \frac{(n+1)^2}{\frac{(n+1)(n^2 + 8n + 6)}{6}} \\ &= \frac{6(n+1)}{n^2 + 8n + 6}. \end{aligned}

The condition p1100p \le \frac{1}{100} becomes f(n)=n2592n5940.f(n) = n^2 - 592n - 594 \ge 0. Since f(593)=593594=1<0f(593) = 593 - 594 = -1 \lt 0 and f(594)=2594594f(594) = 2 \cdot 594 - 594 =594>0,= 594 \gt 0, the least number of women is 594.594.

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