2017 AIME II 第 9 题

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9.

一副特殊纸牌有 4949 张牌,每张牌标有 1177 中的一个数字,并涂有七种颜色中的一种。 每一种数字与颜色的组合恰好出现一次。Sharon 将从这副牌中随机选出八张。已知她至少有一张每种颜色的牌, 且至少有一张每个数字的牌,Sharon 能够弃掉其中一张牌,并且仍然至少有一张每种颜色的牌且至少有一张每个数字的牌的概率为 pq\frac{p}{q},其中 ppqq 是互质的正整数。求 p+qp + q

A special deck of cards contains 4949 cards, each labeled with a number from 11 to 77 and colored with one of seven colors. Each number-color combination appears on exactly one card. Sharon will select a set of eight cards from the deck at random. Given that she gets at least one card of each color and at least one card with each number, the probability that Sharon can discard one of her cards and still have at least one card of each color and at least one card with each number is pq,\frac{p}{q}, where pp and qq are relatively prime positive integers. Find p+q.p + q.

答案:13
知识点:条件概率组合分类讨论
难度评级:2990
解答:

因为八张牌覆盖全部七个数字和全部七种颜色,所以恰好有一个数字出现两次,且恰好有一种颜色出现两次。 Sharon 能弃掉一张牌,当且仅当某一张牌同时带有重复的数字和重复的颜色:这张牌就是唯一可弃的牌; 如果没有这样的牌,去掉任何一张都会失去某个数字或某种颜色。

第一类手牌由一组彩虹七张牌组成,也就是每个数字和每种颜色各出现一次,这样的对应方式有 7!7! 种; 再加上剩余 4242 张牌中的任意一张,并且每手牌只会这样产生一次。因此有 7!42=2116807! \cdot 42 = 211680 手。第二类中,先选重复的数字(77 种)和它的两种颜色 ((72)=21\binom{7}{2} = 21 种);重复的颜色必须是另外 55 种颜色之一,它对应的两个数字来自剩下 的 66 个数字((62)=15\binom{6}{2} = 15 种);最后把剩下四个数字匹配给剩下四种颜色 (4!=244! = 24 种)。共有 72151524=2646007 \cdot 21 \cdot 5 \cdot 15 \cdot 24 = 264600 手。

所求概率为 211680211680+264600=49\frac{211680}{211680 + 264600} = \frac{4}{9},所以 p+q=4+9=13p + q = 4 + 9 = 13

Since the eight cards cover all seven numbers and all seven colors, exactly one number and exactly one color appear twice. Sharon can discard a card exactly when a single card carries both the repeated number and the repeated color: that card is then the unique discardable one, while if no card carries both, removing any card loses a number or a color.

Hands of the first type consist of a rainbow set of seven cards — one of each number and each color, which is one of 7!7! permutation patterns — plus any of the remaining 4242 cards, and every such hand arises exactly once this way: 7!42=2116807! \cdot 42 = 211680 hands. For the second type, choose the repeated number (77 ways) and the two colors of its cards ((72)=21\binom{7}{2} = 21 ways); the repeated color must be one of the other 55 colors, and the numbers of its two cards come from the remaining 66 numbers ((62)=15\binom{6}{2} = 15 ways); finally match the last four numbers to the last four colors (4!=244! = 24 ways). That is 72151524=2646007 \cdot 21 \cdot 5 \cdot 15 \cdot 24 = 264600 hands.

The probability is 211680211680+264600=49,\frac{211680}{211680 + 264600} = \frac{4}{9}, so p+q=4+9=13.p + q = 4 + 9 = 13.

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