2026 AIME I Problem 9

Below is the professionally curated solution for Problem 9 of the 2026 AIME I, from LIVE by Po-Shen Loh. You can also try the full timed exam, view all 2026 AIME I solutions, or check the answer key.

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Concepts:conditional probabilityindependent eventscasework

Difficulty rating: 2840

9.

Joanne has a blank fair six-sided die and six stickers each displaying a different integer from 11 to 6.6. Joanne rolls the die and then places the sticker labeled 11 on the top face of the die. She then rolls the die again, places the sticker labeled 22 on the top face, and continues this process to place the rest of the stickers in order. If the die ever lands with a sticker already on its top face, the new sticker is placed to cover the old sticker. Let pp be the conditional probability that at the end of the process exactly one face has been left blank, given that all the even-numbered stickers are visible on faces of the die. Then pp can be written as mn,\frac{m}{n}, where mm and nn are relatively prime positive integers. Find m+n.m + n.

Solution:

Let f1,,f6f_1, \ldots, f_6 be the top faces rolled, independent and uniform over the six faces. Sticker ii goes on face fif_i and ends up visible exactly when fjfif_j \ne f_i for all j>ij \gt i (sticker 66 is always visible). So the conditioning event is f3,f4,f5,f6f2f_3, f_4, f_5, f_6 \ne f_2 and f5,f6f4.f_5, f_6 \ne f_4. Counting choices in the order f1,f2,f3,f4,f5,f6f_1, f_2, f_3, f_4, f_5, f_6 gives 665544=144006 \cdot 6 \cdot 5 \cdot 5 \cdot 4 \cdot 4 = 14400 sequences out of 66.6^6.

A face is blank exactly when it never appears among f1,,f6,f_1, \ldots, f_6, so exactly one blank face means the sequence takes exactly 55 distinct values, i.e. there is exactly one coincidence fi=fjf_i = f_j with i<ji \lt j and all other values distinct. The coincidence must not violate the conditioning: pairs (2,j)(2, j) and (4,5),(4, 5), (4,6)(4, 6) are forbidden, leaving the 99 pairs (1,2),(1,2), (1,3),(1,3), (1,4),(1,4), (1,5),(1,5), (1,6),(1,6), (3,4),(3,4), (3,5),(3,5), (3,6),(3,6), (5,6).(5,6). For each allowed pair, the five distinct values can be assigned in 65432=7206 \cdot 5 \cdot 4 \cdot 3 \cdot 2 = 720 ways, and every constraint holds automatically because the only repeated value occupies an allowed pair. That gives 9720=64809 \cdot 720 = 6480 sequences.

Therefore p=648014400=920,p = \frac{6480}{14400} = \frac{9}{20}, and m+n=9+20=29.m + n = 9 + 20 = 29.

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