2026 AIME I 第 9 题

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9.

Joanne 有一个空白的公平六面骰子,以及六张贴纸,每张贴纸分别标有从 1166 的一个不同整数。 Joanne 掷骰子,然后把标有 11 的贴纸贴在朝上的面上。她再掷一次骰子,把标有 22 的贴纸贴在朝上的面上, 并继续这个过程,按顺序贴完其余贴纸。如果骰子朝上的面已经有贴纸,则新贴纸盖在旧贴纸上。设 pp 为如下条件概率:在所有偶数编号贴纸最终都可见的条件下,过程结束时恰好有一个面仍为空白。若 pp 可写成 mn\frac{m}{n},其中 mmnn 为互质正整数,求 m+nm + n

Joanne has a blank fair six-sided die and six stickers each displaying a different integer from 11 to 6.6. Joanne rolls the die and then places the sticker labeled 11 on the top face of the die. She then rolls the die again, places the sticker labeled 22 on the top face, and continues this process to place the rest of the stickers in order. If the die ever lands with a sticker already on its top face, the new sticker is placed to cover the old sticker. Let pp be the conditional probability that at the end of the process exactly one face has been left blank, given that all the even-numbered stickers are visible on faces of the die. Then pp can be written as mn,\frac{m}{n}, where mm and nn are relatively prime positive integers. Find m+n.m + n.

答案:29
知识点:条件概率独立事件分类讨论
难度评级:2840
解答:

f1,,f6f_1, \ldots, f_6 为每次掷出的朝上面,它们在六个面上独立均匀。贴纸 ii 被贴在面 fif_i 上,并最终可见当且仅当对所有 j>ij \gt i 都有 fjfif_j \ne f_i (贴纸 66 总是可见)。所以条件事件为 f3,f4,f5,f6f2f_3, f_4, f_5, f_6 \ne f_2f5,f6f4f_5, f_6 \ne f_4。按 f1,f2,f3,f4,f5,f6f_1, f_2, f_3, f_4, f_5, f_6 的顺序计数,得到 665544=144006 \cdot 6 \cdot 5 \cdot 5 \cdot 4 \cdot 4 = 14400 个序列,全集为 666^6 个序列。

一个面为空白当且仅当它从未在 f1,,f6f_1, \ldots, f_6 中出现,所以恰好一个空白面意味着序列取到 恰好 55 个不同值,即恰有一次重合 fi=fjf_i = f_j,其中 i<ji \lt j,其余值都不同。 该重合不能违反条件:配对 (2,j)(2, j) 以及 (4,5)(4, 5)(4,6)(4, 6) 被禁止,剩下 99 个配对 (1,2)(1,2)(1,3)(1,3)(1,4)(1,4)(1,5)(1,5)(1,6)(1,6)(3,4)(3,4)(3,5)(3,5)(3,6)(3,6)(5,6)(5,6)。对每个允许的配对,五个不同值可用 65432=7206 \cdot 5 \cdot 4 \cdot 3 \cdot 2 = 720 种方式分配;由于唯一重复值位于允许配对中, 所有条件自动满足。因此有 9720=64809 \cdot 720 = 6480 个序列。

所以 p=648014400=920p = \frac{6480}{14400} = \frac{9}{20},且 m+n=9+20=29m + n = 9 + 20 = 29

Let f1,,f6f_1, \ldots, f_6 be the top faces rolled, independent and uniform over the six faces. Sticker ii goes on face fif_i and ends up visible exactly when fjfif_j \ne f_i for all j>ij \gt i (sticker 66 is always visible). So the conditioning event is f3,f4,f5,f6f2f_3, f_4, f_5, f_6 \ne f_2 and f5,f6f4.f_5, f_6 \ne f_4. Counting choices in the order f1,f2,f3,f4,f5,f6f_1, f_2, f_3, f_4, f_5, f_6 gives 665544=144006 \cdot 6 \cdot 5 \cdot 5 \cdot 4 \cdot 4 = 14400 sequences out of 66.6^6.

A face is blank exactly when it never appears among f1,,f6,f_1, \ldots, f_6, so exactly one blank face means the sequence takes exactly 55 distinct values, i.e. there is exactly one coincidence fi=fjf_i = f_j with i<ji \lt j and all other values distinct. The coincidence must not violate the conditioning: pairs (2,j)(2, j) and (4,5),(4, 5), (4,6)(4, 6) are forbidden, leaving the 99 pairs (1,2),(1,2), (1,3),(1,3), (1,4),(1,4), (1,5),(1,5), (1,6),(1,6), (3,4),(3,4), (3,5),(3,5), (3,6),(3,6), (5,6).(5,6). For each allowed pair, the five distinct values can be assigned in 65432=7206 \cdot 5 \cdot 4 \cdot 3 \cdot 2 = 720 ways, and every constraint holds automatically because the only repeated value occupies an allowed pair. That gives 9720=64809 \cdot 720 = 6480 sequences.

Therefore p=648014400=920,p = \frac{6480}{14400} = \frac{9}{20}, and m+n=9+20=29.m + n = 9 + 20 = 29.

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