2023 AIME I Problem 6

Below is the professionally curated solution for Problem 6 of the 2023 AIME I, from LIVE by Po-Shen Loh. You can also try the full timed exam, view all 2023 AIME I solutions, or check the answer key.

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Concepts:expected valuerecursive probabilityoptimization

Difficulty rating: 2600

6.

Alice knows that 33 red cards and 33 black cards will be revealed to her one at a time in random order. Before each card is revealed, Alice must guess its color. If Alice plays optimally, the expected number of cards she will guess correctly is mn,\frac{m}{n}, where mm and nn are relatively prime positive integers. Find m+n.m + n.

Solution:

Whatever Alice guesses, the deck evolves the same way; only the immediate success probability depends on her guess, so it is optimal to guess a color with the most cards remaining. Let E(r,b)E(r, b) be the expected number of correct guesses from a state with rr red and bb black cards left. Then E(r,0)=r,E(r, 0) = r, E(0,b)=b,E(0, b) = b, and E(r,b)=max(r,b)r+b+rE(r1,b)+bE(r,b1)r+b.E(r, b) = \frac{\max(r, b)}{r + b} + \frac{r\,E(r-1, b) + b\,E(r, b-1)}{r + b}.

By symmetry E(r,b)=E(b,r).E(r, b) = E(b, r). Computing upward: E(1,1)=32,E(1,1) = \frac{3}{2}, E(2,1)=23+232+23=73,E(2,1) = \frac{2}{3} + \frac{2 \cdot \frac{3}{2} + 2}{3} = \frac{7}{3}, E(2,2)=12+73=176,E(2,2) = \frac{1}{2} + \frac{7}{3} = \frac{17}{6}, E(3,1)=34+373+34=134,E(3,1) = \frac{3}{4} + \frac{3 \cdot \frac{7}{3} + 3}{4} = \frac{13}{4}, E(3,2)=35+3176+21345=185,E(3,2) = \frac{3}{5} + \frac{3 \cdot \frac{17}{6} + 2 \cdot \frac{13}{4}}{5} = \frac{18}{5}, and finally E(3,3)=12+185=4110.E(3,3) = \frac{1}{2} + \frac{18}{5} = \frac{41}{10}.

So the expected number of correct guesses is 4110,\frac{41}{10}, and m+n=41+10=51.m + n = 41 + 10 = 51.

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