2025 AMC 10B 第 11 题

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11.

星期一,66 名学生同时来到辅导中心,每人随机分配给当天值班的 66 名导师之一。星期二,同样的 66 名学生又来了,同样的 66 名导师也在值班,学生再次随机分配给导师。恰有 22 名学生两天都见到同一位导师的概率是多少?

On Monday, 66 students went to the tutoring center at the same time, and each one was randomly assigned to one of the 66 tutors on duty. On Tuesday, the same 66 students showed up, the same 66 tutors were on duty, and the students were again randomly assigned to the tutors. What is the probability that exactly 22 students met with the same tutor both Monday and Tuesday?

116\dfrac{1}{16}

316\dfrac{3}{16}

14\dfrac{1}{4}

38\dfrac{3}{8}

12\dfrac{1}{2}

答案:B
知识点:错位排列排列基本概率
难度评级:1590
解答:

每天的分配都是把 66 名学生分给 66 名导师的一个排列。比较两天时,保持同一导师的学生数就是 τ=πTue1πMon\tau = \pi_{\text{Tue}}^{-1}\pi_{\text{Mon}} 的不动点个数,而这个置换是 66 个元素上的均匀随机排列。要恰有 22 个不动点,先选出这 22 个,有 (62)\binom{6}{2} 种;其余 44 个要错排,有 D4=9D_4 = 9 种。因此概率为 (62)D46!=159720=316\dfrac{\binom{6}{2} D_4}{6!} = \dfrac{15 \cdot 9}{720} = \dfrac{3}{16}。所以正确答案是 B

Each day's assignment is a permutation of the 66 students among the 66 tutors. Comparing the two days, the number who keep the same tutor is the number of fixed points of τ=πTue1πMon,\tau = \pi_{\text{Tue}}^{-1}\pi_{\text{Mon}}, itself a uniformly random permutation of 66 elements. We want exactly 22 fixed points, so choose those 22 in (62)\binom{6}{2} ways and derange the other 4,4, where D4=9.D_4 = 9. The probability is (62)D46!=159720=316.\dfrac{\binom{6}{2} D_4}{6!} = \dfrac{15 \cdot 9}{720} = \dfrac{3}{16}. Thus, B is the correct answer.

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