2024 AIME I Problem 4

Attempt Problem 4 of the 2024 AIME I below, then check your answer against the professionally curated solution from LIVE by Po-Shen Loh. You can also try the full timed exam, view all 2024 AIME I solutions, or check the answer key.

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4.

Jen enters a lottery by selecting 44 distinct elements of S={1,2,3,,9,10}.S = \{1, 2, 3, \ldots, 9, 10\}. Then four elements of SS are drawn at random. Jen wins a prize if at least two of her numbers were drawn, and wins the grand prize if all four of her numbers were drawn. The probability that Jen wins the grand prize given that Jen wins a prize is mn\frac{m}{n} where mm and nn are relatively prime positive integers. Find m+n.m + n.

Answer: 116
Concepts:conditional probabilitycombinations
Difficulty rating: 2230
Solution:

All (104)=210\binom{10}{4} = 210 draws are equally likely. The number of draws sharing exactly kk numbers with Jen's ticket is (4k)(64k),\binom{4}{k}\binom{6}{4-k}, so the number winning a prize is (42)(62)+(43)(61)+(44)(60)=90+24+1=115, \begin{aligned} &\binom{4}{2}\binom{6}{2} + \binom{4}{3}\binom{6}{1} \\ &\quad {}+ \binom{4}{4}\binom{6}{0} \\ &= 90 + 24 + 1 = 115, \end{aligned} and exactly 11 of these wins the grand prize.

Since the grand prize implies a prize, the conditional probability is 1/210115/210=1115,\frac{1/210}{115/210} = \frac{1}{115}, so m+n=1+115=116.m + n = 1 + 115 = 116.

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