Question

In a drawer Sandy has $5$ pairs of socks, each pair a different color. On Monday Sandy selects two individual socks at random from the $10$ socks in the drawer. On Tuesday Sandy selects $2$ of the remaining $8$ socks at random and on Wednesday two of the remaining $6$ socks at random. The probability that Wednesday is the first day Sandy selects matching socks is $\frac{m}{n},$ where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers. Find $m + n.$

Answer

Answer: 341

Concepts:basic probability sampling without replacement symmetry

Difficulty rating: 2510

Solution:

Imagine dealing all ten socks out two per day for five days; every assignment of unordered pairs to days is equally likely, and permuting the days does not change this distribution. Swapping Monday and Wednesday therefore shows that the desired probability (mismatch, mismatch, match) equals the probability of a match on Monday followed by mismatches on Tuesday and Wednesday.

That pattern is easy to compute in order. Monday matches with probability $\frac{1}{9}$ (the second sock must be the first sock's mate). The remaining $8$ socks then form $4$ complete pairs, so Tuesday mismatches with probability $1 - \frac{4}{\binom{8}{2}} = \frac{6}{7}.$ Tuesday's mismatch breaks two pairs, leaving $2$ complete pairs among the $6$ remaining socks, so Wednesday mismatches with probability $1 - \frac{2}{\binom{6}{2}} = \frac{13}{15}.$

The probability is $\frac{1}{9} \cdot \frac{6}{7} \cdot \frac{13}{15} = \frac{26}{315},$ so $m + n = 26 + 315 = 341.$

2015 AIME I Problem 5

Answer: 341

Difficulty rating: 2510

Solution:

Problem 5 in Other Years