2010 AIME I Problem 4

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4.

Jackie and Phil have two fair coins and a third coin that comes up heads with probability 47.\frac{4}{7}. Jackie flips the three coins, and then Phil flips the three coins. Let mn\frac{m}{n} be the probability that Jackie gets the same number of heads as Phil, where mm and nn are relatively prime positive integers. Find m+n.m + n.

Answer: 515
Concepts:basic probabilityindependent eventscasework
Difficulty rating: 2340
Solution:

Let p(h)p(h) be the probability that one player flips hh heads. Splitting according to the two fair coins and the biased coin, p(0)=1437=328,p(1)=2437+1447=1028,p(2)=1437+2447=1128,p(3)=1447=428. \begin{aligned} p(0) &= \tfrac{1}{4} \cdot \tfrac{3}{7} = \tfrac{3}{28}, \\ p(1) &= \tfrac{2}{4} \cdot \tfrac{3}{7} + \tfrac{1}{4} \cdot \tfrac{4}{7} = \tfrac{10}{28}, \\ p(2) &= \tfrac{1}{4} \cdot \tfrac{3}{7} + \tfrac{2}{4} \cdot \tfrac{4}{7} = \tfrac{11}{28}, \\ p(3) &= \tfrac{1}{4} \cdot \tfrac{4}{7} = \tfrac{4}{28}. \end{aligned}

Jackie's and Phil's flips are independent with the same distribution, so the probability that their head counts agree is hp(h)2=32+102+112+42282=246784=123392. \small \begin{aligned} \sum_h p(h)^2 &= \frac{3^2 + 10^2 + 11^2 + 4^2}{28^2} \\ &= \frac{246}{784} = \frac{123}{392}. \end{aligned} Thus m+n=123+392=515.m + n = 123 + 392 = 515.

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