2003 AIME II Problem 13

Attempt Problem 13 of the 2003 AIME II below, then check your answer against the professionally curated solution from LIVE by Po-Shen Loh. You can also try the full timed exam, view all 2003 AIME II solutions, or check the answer key.

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13.

A bug starts at a vertex of an equilateral triangle. On each move, it randomly selects one of the two vertices where it is not currently located, and crawls along a side of the triangle to that vertex. Given that the probability that the bug moves to its starting vertex on its tenth move is mn,\frac{m}{n}, where mm and nn are relatively prime positive integers, find m+n.m + n.

Answer: 683
Concepts:random walkrecursive probability
Difficulty rating: 2650
Solution:

Let pnp_n be the probability that the bug is at its starting vertex after nn moves, so p0=1.p_0 = 1. The bug is home after move n+1n + 1 exactly when it was elsewhere after move nn (probability 1pn1 - p_n) and then chose the starting vertex (probability 12\frac{1}{2}): pn+1=12(1pn).p_{n+1} = \frac{1}{2}(1 - p_n).

The fixed point of this recurrence is 13,\frac{1}{3}, and pn+113=12(pn13),p_{n+1} - \frac{1}{3} = -\frac{1}{2}\left(p_n - \frac{1}{3}\right), so pn=13+23(12)n.p_n = \frac{1}{3} + \frac{2}{3}\left(-\frac{1}{2}\right)^n.

For n=10:n = 10: p10=13(1+21024)=1310261024=171512. \begin{aligned} p_{10} &= \frac{1}{3}\left(1 + \frac{2}{1024}\right) \\ &= \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{1026}{1024} = \frac{171}{512}. \end{aligned} Since 171=919171 = 9 \cdot 19 and 512=29512 = 2^9 share no factor, m+n=171+512=683.m + n = 171 + 512 = 683.

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