2018 AIME II Problem 13

Below is the professionally curated solution for Problem 13 of the 2018 AIME II, from LIVE by Po-Shen Loh. You can also try the full timed exam, view all 2018 AIME II solutions, or check the answer key.

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Concepts:recursive probabilitydice (probability)paritysystem of equations

Difficulty rating: 3270

13.

Misha rolls a standard, fair six-sided die until she rolls 11-22-33 in that order on three consecutive rolls. The probability that she will roll the die an odd number of times is mn,\frac{m}{n}, where mm and nn are relatively prime positive integers. Find m+n.m + n.

Solution:

Let aa be the probability that the total number of rolls is odd; let bb be that probability given that the first roll is a 1,1, and cc given that the first two rolls are 11-22 (in each case counting all rolls). Condition on the next roll, noting that whenever the count restarts, the rolls already used flip the required parity. Starting fresh: a 11 leads to state b;b; anything else uses one roll, after which an even continuation is needed. After a 1:1: another 11 means the first roll is wasted, needing an even continuation of the bb-type; a 22 leads to c;c; anything else wastes both rolls. After 11-2:2: a 33 finishes in 33 rolls (odd); a 11 restarts at the bb-state with two wasted rolls; anything else wastes all three. Thus a=16b+56(1a),b=16(1b)+16c+46a,c=16b+16+46(1a).a = \frac{1}{6}b + \frac{5}{6}(1 - a), \qquad b = \frac{1}{6}(1 - b) + \frac{1}{6}c + \frac{4}{6}a, \qquad c = \frac{1}{6}b + \frac{1}{6} + \frac{4}{6}(1 - a).

The first equation gives b=11a5;b = 11a - 5; substituting the third into the second yields 41b=11+20a,41b = 11 + 20a, so 41(11a5)=11+20a,41(11a - 5) = 11 + 20a, giving 431a=216431a = 216 and a=216431.a = \frac{216}{431}. Since 431431 is prime, m+n=216+431=647.m + n = 216 + 431 = 647.

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