Question

A box contains $5$ chips, numbered $1,$ $2,$ $3,$ $4,$ and $5.$ Chips are drawn randomly one at a time without replacement until the sum of the values drawn exceeds $4.$ What is the probability that $3$ draws are required?

$\dfrac{1}{15}$

$\dfrac{1}{10}$

$\dfrac{1}{6}$

$\dfrac{1}{5}$

$\dfrac{1}{4}$

Answer: D

Concepts:sampling without replacement basic probability

Difficulty rating: 1290

Solution:

We need a third draw exactly when the first two chips still sum to $4$ or less. The only such unordered pairs are $\{1,2\}$ and $\{1,3\}.$ Each can be drawn in either order, giving $4$ favorable ordered prefixes.

Imagine that a complete random ordering of all five chips is chosen in advance. Then all $5\cdot4=20$ ordered first-two-chip prefixes are equally likely, even when the actual process would stop after the first chip. Thus the probability is $4/20=1/5.$ Therefore, the answer is D.

2018 AMC 10B Problem 6

Answer: D

Difficulty rating: 1290

Solution:

Problem 6 in Other Years