2019 AIME I Problem 5

Attempt Problem 5 of the 2019 AIME I below, then check your answer against the professionally curated solution from LIVE by Po-Shen Loh. You can also try the full timed exam, view all 2019 AIME I solutions, or check the answer key.

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5.

A moving particle starts at the point (4,4)(4, 4) and moves until it hits one of the coordinate axes for the first time. When the particle is at the point (a,b),(a, b), it moves at random to one of the points (a1,b),(a - 1, b), (a,b1),(a, b - 1), or (a1,b1),(a - 1, b - 1), each with probability 13,\frac{1}{3}, independently of its previous moves. The probability that it will hit the coordinate axes at (0,0)(0, 0) is m3n,\frac{m}{3^n}, where mm and nn are positive integers, and mm is not divisible by 3.3. Find m+n.m + n.

Answer: 252
Concepts:lattice pathsbasic probabilitymultiset permutations
Difficulty rating: 2600
Solution:

Coordinates never increase, so the first axis point reached is (0,0)(0,0) exactly when the particle reaches (1,1)(1, 1) and then takes the diagonal step. Every path from (4,4)(4,4) to (1,1)(1,1) automatically stays off the axes, since its coordinates remain at least 1.1.

A path from (4,4)(4,4) to (1,1)(1,1) with dd diagonal steps also has 3d3 - d left steps and 3d3 - d down steps, for 6d6 - d steps in all, and there are (6d)!d!(3d)!(3d)!\frac{(6-d)!}{d!\,(3-d)!\,(3-d)!} orderings: 20,30,12,120, 30, 12, 1 for d=0,1,2,3.d = 0, 1, 2, 3. Since a path with 6d6 - d steps has probability (13)6d,\left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^{6-d}, the probability of reaching (1,1)(1,1) and then stepping to (0,0)(0,0) is 13(2036+3035+1234+133)=1320+90+108+2736=24537. \begin{aligned} &\frac{1}{3}\left(\frac{20}{3^6} + \frac{30}{3^5} + \frac{12}{3^4} + \frac{1}{3^3}\right) \\ &= \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{20 + 90 + 108 + 27}{3^6} \\ &= \frac{245}{3^7}. \end{aligned}

Since 245=572245 = 5 \cdot 7^2 is not divisible by 3,3, we get m+n=245+7=252.m + n = 245 + 7 = 252.

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