1995 AIME Problem 15

Attempt Problem 15 of the 1995 AIME below, then check your answer against the professionally curated solution from LIVE by Po-Shen Loh. You can also try the full timed exam, view all 1995 AIME solutions, or check the answer key.

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15.

Let pp be the probability that, in the process of repeatedly flipping a fair coin, one will encounter a run of 55 heads before one encounters a run of 22 tails. Given that pp can be written in the form mn,\frac{m}{n}, where mm and nn are relatively prime positive integers, find m+n.m+n.

Answer: 37
Concepts:recursive probabilityprocess simulationbasic probability
Difficulty rating: 2210
Small Hint:

Use states for 0,0, 1,1, 2,2, 3,3, and 44 consecutive heads and one separate state for a single trailing tail

Big Hint:

Express every head-run state’s success probability in terms of the trailing-tail state

Solution:

Let qiq_i be the success probability with ii consecutive heads and no trailing tail, and let tt be the probability after one tail. Then qi=qi+1+t2(0i<4),q4=1+t2,t=q12.\begin{aligned}q_i&=\frac{q_{i+1}+t}{2}\quad(0\leq i<4),\\q_4&=\frac{1+t}{2},\\t&=\frac{q_1}{2}.\end{aligned} Working backward gives q1=1+15t16.q_1=\frac{1+15t}{16}. Since q1=2t,q_1=2t, we get t=117t=\frac{1}{17} and q1=217.q_1=\frac{2}{17}. Therefore p=q0=q1+t2=334,p=q_0=\frac{q_1+t}{2}=\frac3{34}, so m+n=3+34=37.m+n=3+34=37.

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