2016 AMC 12A Problem 19

Attempt Problem 19 of the 2016 AMC 12A below, then check your answer against the professionally curated solution from LIVE by Po-Shen Loh. You can also try the full timed exam, view all 2016 AMC 12A solutions, or check the answer key.

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19.

Jerry starts at 00 on the real number line. He tosses a fair coin 88 times. When he gets heads, he moves 11 unit in the positive direction; when he gets tails, he moves 11 unit in the negative direction. The probability that he reaches 44 at some time during this process is ab,\dfrac{a}{b}, where aa and bb are relatively prime positive integers. What is a+b?a+b? (For example, he succeeds if his sequence of tosses is HTHHHHHH.)

6969

151151

257257

293293

313313

Answer: B
Concepts:random walkcasework
Difficulty rating: 1990
Small Hint:

Count the 282^8 toss sequences in which the running total reaches 44

Big Hint:

With at most 22 tails he always reaches 4;4; with 33 or 44 tails only some orders work

Solution:

Count the sequences of 88 tosses whose running total reaches 4.4. With at most 22 tails he certainly reaches 4,4, contributing (80)+(81)+(82)=1+8+28=37 \begin{gathered} \binom80+\binom81+\binom82\\ =1+8+28\\ =37 \end{gathered} sequences.

With exactly 33 tails, he can first reach 44 on toss 44 or toss 6.6. Reaching it on toss 44 requires four initial heads, after which the remaining head has 44 possible positions. Otherwise, tosses 55 and 66 are heads, one of the first four tosses is a tail, and the last two are tails, again giving 44 possibilities. Thus this case contributes 8.8. With exactly 44 tails, only HHHHTTTT works, giving 1.1. He cannot reach 44 with fewer than 44 heads.

So there are 37+8+1=4637+8+1=46 favorable sequences out of 28=256,2^8=256, a probability of 46256=23128.\dfrac{46}{256}=\dfrac{23}{128}. Then a+b=23+128=151.a+b=23+128=151.

Thus, the correct answer is B.

Problem 18#18
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