2011 AIME I Problem 12

Below is the professionally curated solution for Problem 12 of the 2011 AIME I, from LIVE by Po-Shen Loh. You can also try the full timed exam, view all 2011 AIME I solutions, or check the answer key.

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Concepts:conditional probabilityarrangements with restrictionsinequality

Difficulty rating: 3060

12.

Six men and some number of women stand in a line in random order. Let pp be the probability that a group of at least four men stand together in the line, given that every man stands next to at least one other man. Find the least number of women in the line such that pp does not exceed 11 percent.

Solution:

Let nn be the number of women; only the pattern of men's and women's positions matters. If every man stands next to another man, the men form maximal blocks whose sizes, in order, are 2+2+2,2+2+2, 2+4,2+4, 4+2,4+2, 3+3,3+3, or 6.6. A pattern with jj blocks amounts to choosing jj of the n+1n + 1 gaps determined by the women, so there are (n+13)\binom{n+1}{3} patterns for 2+2+2,2+2+2, (n+12)\binom{n+1}{2} for each of the three two-block orders, and n+1n + 1 for a single block.

At least four men stand together in the orders 2+4,2+4, 4+2,4+2, and 6,6, so p=2(n+12)+(n+1)(n+13)+3(n+12)+(n+1)=(n+1)2(n+1)(n2+8n+6)6=6(n+1)n2+8n+6.p = \frac{2\binom{n+1}{2} + (n+1)}{\binom{n+1}{3} + 3\binom{n+1}{2} + (n+1)} = \frac{(n+1)^2}{\frac{(n+1)(n^2 + 8n + 6)}{6}} = \frac{6(n+1)}{n^2 + 8n + 6}.

The condition p1100p \le \frac{1}{100} becomes f(n)=n2592n5940.f(n) = n^2 - 592n - 594 \ge 0. Since f(593)=593594=1<0f(593) = 593 - 594 = -1 \lt 0 and f(594)=2594594=594>0,f(594) = 2 \cdot 594 - 594 = 594 \gt 0, the least number of women is 594.594.

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