Question

A frog sitting at the point $(1, 2)$ begins a sequence of jumps, where each jump is parallel to one of the coordinate axes and has length $1,$ and the direction of each jump (up, down, right, or left) is chosen independently at random. The sequence ends when the frog reaches a side of the square with vertices $(0, 0),$ $(0, 4),$ $(4, 4),$ and $(4, 0).$ What is the probability that the sequence of jumps ends on a vertical side of the square?

$\dfrac{1}{2}$

$\dfrac{5}{8}$

$\dfrac{2}{3}$

$\dfrac{3}{4}$

$\dfrac{7}{8}$

Solution:

Let $P(x, y)$ be the probability of ending on a vertical side. On a vertical side $P = 1,$ on a horizontal side $P = 0,$ and at an interior point $P$ is the average of its four neighbors.

By left-right symmetry $P(2, 2) = \tfrac12.$ Let $a = P(1, 2),$ $b = P(1, 1) = P(1, 3),$ and $c = P(2, 1) = P(2, 3).$ Then

$a = \tfrac14\left(1 + \tfrac12 + 2b\right),$ $\;b = \tfrac14(1 + c + a),$ and $c = \tfrac14\left(2b + \tfrac12\right).$

Substituting gives $b = \tfrac12,$ hence $a = \tfrac38 + \tfrac12 b = \tfrac58.$

Thus, B is the correct answer.

2020 AMC 12A Problem 11

Solution:

Problem 11 in Other Years