2010 AMC 12A Problem 15

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15.

A coin is altered so that the probability that it lands on heads is less than 12,\dfrac12, and when the coin is flipped four times, the probability of an equal number of heads and tails is 16.\dfrac{1}{6}. What is the probability that the coin lands on heads?

1536\dfrac{\sqrt{15}-3}{6}

666+212\dfrac{6-\sqrt{6\sqrt6+2}}{12}

212\dfrac{\sqrt2-1}{2}

336\dfrac{3-\sqrt3}{6}

312\dfrac{\sqrt3-1}{2}

Answer: D
Concepts:binomial probabilityquadratic
Difficulty rating: 1650
Solution:

Let pp be the probability of heads. The chance of two heads and two tails in four flips is (42)p2(1p)2=6p2(1p)2=16. \begin{aligned} \binom{4}{2}p^2(1-p)^2 &= 6p^2(1-p)^2 \\ &= \frac16. \end{aligned}

Thus p2(1p)2=136,p^2(1-p)^2=\dfrac{1}{36}, so p(1p)=16.p(1-p)=\dfrac16.

This gives 6p26p+1=0,6p^2-6p+1=0, so p=3±36.p=\dfrac{3\pm\sqrt3}{6}. Since p<12,p\lt\dfrac12, we take p=336.p=\dfrac{3-\sqrt3}{6}.

Thus, D is the correct answer.

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