Question

Seven teams play a soccer tournament in which each team plays every other team exactly once. No ties occur, each team has a $50\%$ chance of winning each game it plays, and the outcomes of the games are independent. In each game, the winner is awarded $1$ point and the loser gets $0$ points. The total points are accumulated to decide the ranks of the teams. In the first game of the tournament, team $A$ beats team $B.$ The probability that team $A$ finishes with more points than team $B$ is $\frac{m}{n},$ where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers. Find $m + n.$

Answer

Solution:

Teams $A$ and $B$ each have $5$ games left, none against each other, so all $2^5 \cdot 2^5 = 1024$ outcomes are equally likely. Since $A$ already leads by one point, $A$ finishes with more points exactly when $A$ wins at least as many remaining games as $B$ does.

The number of outcomes with equal win counts is $\sum_{k=0}^{5} \binom{5}{k}^2 = \binom{10}{5} = 252.$ By symmetry, the other $1024 - 252 = 772$ outcomes split evenly between $A$ winning more and $B$ winning more.

So the probability is $\frac{252 + 386}{1024} = \frac{638}{1024} = \frac{319}{512},$ and $m + n = 319 + 512 = 831.$

2006 AIME II Problem 10

Solution:

Problem 10 in Other Years