2021 AMC 12A Fall Problem 18

Attempt Problem 18 of the 2021 AMC 12A Fall below, then check your answer against the professionally curated solution from LIVE by Po-Shen Loh. You can also try the full timed exam, view all 2021 AMC 12A Fall solutions, or check the answer key.

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18.

Each of 2020 balls is tossed independently and at random into one of 55 bins. Let pp be the probability that some bin ends up with 33 balls, another with 55 balls, and the other three with 44 balls each. Let qq be the probability that every bin ends up with 44 balls. What is pq?\dfrac{p}{q}?

11

44

88

1212

1616

Answer: E
Concepts:basic probabilitymultiset permutations
Difficulty rating: 1990
Solution:

Both probabilities divide by 520,5^{20}, so pq\dfrac{p}{q} is a ratio of arrangement counts.

For q,q, all bins have 4:4: 20!(4!)5.\dfrac{20!}{(4!)^5}. For p,p, choose which bin has 33 and which has 55 in 54=205\cdot 4 = 20 ways, times 20!3!5!(4!)3.\dfrac{20!}{3!\,5!\,(4!)^3}. Therefore pq=20(4!)53!5!(4!)3=20(4!)23!5!=20576720=16. \begin{aligned} \frac{p}{q} &= 20 \cdot \frac{(4!)^5}{3!\,5!\,(4!)^3} \\ &= 20 \cdot \frac{(4!)^2}{3!\,5!} \\ &= 20 \cdot \frac{576}{720} \\ &= 16. \end{aligned}

Thus, the correct answer is E.

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