2021 AMC 12A Fall Problem 18

Below is the professionally curated solution for Problem 18 of the 2021 AMC 12A Fall, from LIVE by Po-Shen Loh. You can also try the full timed exam, view all 2021 AMC 12A Fall solutions, or check the answer key.

All of the real AMC 8, AMC 10, AMC 12, and AIME problems in our complete solution collection are used with official legal permission of the Mathematical Association of America (MAA).

Concepts:basic probabilitymultiset permutations

Difficulty rating: 1990

18.

Each of 2020 balls is tossed independently and at random into one of 55 bins. Let pp be the probability that some bin ends up with 33 balls, another with 55 balls, and the other three with 44 balls each. Let qq be the probability that every bin ends up with 44 balls. What is pq?\dfrac{p}{q}?

11

44

88

1212

1616

Solution:

Both probabilities divide by 520,5^{20}, so pq\dfrac{p}{q} is a ratio of arrangement counts.

For q,q, all bins have 4:4: 20!(4!)5.\dfrac{20!}{(4!)^5}. For p,p, choose which bin has 33 and which has 55 in 54=205\cdot 4 = 20 ways, times 20!3!5!(4!)3.\dfrac{20!}{3!\,5!\,(4!)^3}. Therefore pq=20(4!)53!5!(4!)3=20(4!)23!5!=20576720=16. \frac{p}{q} = 20 \cdot \frac{(4!)^5}{3!\,5!\,(4!)^3} = 20 \cdot \frac{(4!)^2}{3!\,5!} = 20 \cdot \frac{576}{720} = 16.

Thus, the correct answer is E.

Problem 18 in Other Years