2024 AMC 12B Problem 25

Attempt Problem 25 of the 2024 AMC 12B below, then check your answer against the professionally curated solution from LIVE by Po-Shen Loh. You can also try the full timed exam, view all 2024 AMC 12B solutions, or check the answer key.

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25.

Pablo will decorate each of 66 identical white balls with either a striped or a dotted pattern, using either red or blue paint. He will decide on the color and pattern for each ball by flipping a fair coin for each of the 1212 decisions he must make. After the paint dries, he will place the 66 balls in an urn. Frida will randomly select one ball from the urn and note its color and pattern. The events "the ball Frida selects is red" and "the ball Frida selects is striped" may or may not be independent, depending on the outcome of Pablo's coin flips. The probability that these two events are independent can be written as mn,\dfrac{m}{n}, where mm and nn are relatively prime positive integers. What is m?m? (Recall that two events AA and BB are independent if P(A and B)=P(A)P(B).P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A)\cdot P(B).)

243243

245245

247247

249249

251251

Answer: A
Concepts:independent eventscasework
Difficulty rating: 2510
Solution:

Each ball is independently one of four equally likely types: red-striped, red-dotted, blue-striped, blue-dotted. Suppose among the 66 balls there are kk red-striped, with RR red and SS striped in total. For Frida's uniform pick, P(red)=R6,P(\text{red}) = \tfrac{R}{6}, P(striped)=S6,P(\text{striped}) = \tfrac{S}{6}, and P(red and striped)=k6.P(\text{red and striped}) = \tfrac{k}{6}. Independence means k6=R6S6,\dfrac{k}{6} = \dfrac{R}{6}\cdot\dfrac{S}{6}, i.e. 6k=RS.6k = RS.

First count assignments with R{0,6}R\in\{0,6\} or S{0,6}.S\in\{0,6\}. Each of these four conditions leaves 26=642^6=64 choices for the other attribute, and the four assignments at their pairwise intersections have been counted twice. Their union therefore contributes 4644=252.4\cdot64-4=252.

For 1R,S5,1\le R,S\le5, the condition 6RS6\mid RS leaves only (R,S)=(2,3),(3,2)(R,S)=(2,3),(3,2) or (3,4),(4,3).(3,4),(4,3). In each case k=RS/6,k=RS/6, and the four type counts are a permutation of (1,1,2,2).(1,1,2,2). Thus each pair contributes 6!1!1!2!2!=180\dfrac{6!}{1!1!2!2!}=180 assignments. The favorable count is therefore 252+4180=972.252+4\cdot180=972. Out of 46=40964^6=4096 equally likely assignments, the probability is 9724096=2431024,\dfrac{972}{4096}=\dfrac{243}{1024}, so m=243.m=243.

Thus, the correct answer is A.

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