1992 AMC 12 Problem 29

Attempt Problem 29 of the 1992 AMC 12 below, then check your answer against the professionally curated solution from LIVE by Po-Shen Loh. You can also try the full timed exam, view all 1992 AMC 12 solutions, or check the answer key.

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29.

An “unfair” coin has a 23\frac23 probability of turning up heads. If this coin is tossed 5050 times, what is the probability that the total number of heads is even?

25(23)502^5\left(\frac23\right)^{50}

12(11350)\frac12\left(1-\frac1{3^{50}}\right)

12\frac12

12(1+1350)\frac12\left(1+\frac1{3^{50}}\right)

23\frac23

Answer: D
Concepts:binomial parityprobability recurrencecomplementary states
Difficulty rating: 2310
Small Hint:

Track the difference between the probabilities of an even and an odd number of heads

Big Hint:

One toss multiplies that difference by P(T)P(H)P(T)-P(H)

Solution:

Let EnE_n and OnO_n be the probabilities of an even and odd number of heads after nn tosses. Then En+On=1,E_n+O_n=1, while En+1On+1=(1323)(EnOn). \begin{aligned} E_{n+1}-O_{n+1} &=\left(\frac13-\frac23\right)\\ &\qquad\cdot(E_n-O_n). \end{aligned} Since E0O0=1,E_0-O_0=1, we have E50O50=(13)50=350.E_{50}-O_{50}=(-\frac{1}{3})^{50}=3^{-50}. Solving the sum and difference equations gives E50=12(1+1350). E_{50}=\frac12\left(1+\frac1{3^{50}}\right).

Thus the correct answer is D.

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