2026 AIME II Problem 7

Below is the professionally curated solution for Problem 7 of the 2026 AIME II, from LIVE by Po-Shen Loh. You can also try the full timed exam, view all 2026 AIME II solutions, or check the answer key.

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Concepts:geometric distributioncomplementary probabilitysummation

Difficulty rating: 2840

7.

A standard fair six-sided die is rolled repeatedly. Each time the die reads 11 or 2,2, Alice gets a coin; each time it reads 33 or 4,4, Bob gets a coin; and each time it reads 55 or 6,6, Carol gets a coin. The probability that Alice and Bob each receive at least two coins before Carol receives any coins can be written as mn,\frac{m}{n}, where mm and nn are relatively prime positive integers. Find 100m+n.100m + n.

Solution:

Each roll is an Alice roll, a Bob roll, or a Carol roll, each with probability 13.\frac{1}{3}. The event succeeds exactly when the rolls before the first Carol roll include at least two Alice rolls and at least two Bob rolls. The first Carol roll is roll k+1k + 1 with probability (23)k13,\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^k \frac{1}{3}, and given this, the first kk rolls form one of 2k2^k equally likely Alice/Bob strings. For k3k \ge 3 the bad strings — at most one Alice, or at most one Bob — number (k+1)+(k+1)=2k+2,(k + 1) + (k + 1) = 2k + 2, and no string is bad in both ways. Hence P=k413(23)k(12k+22k).P = \sum_{k \ge 4} \frac{1}{3}\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^k \left(1 - \frac{2k + 2}{2^k}\right).

The first piece is k4(23)k=1627.\sum_{k \ge 4} \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^k = \frac{16}{27}. For the second, k0k+13k=1(11/3)2=94,\sum_{k \ge 0} \frac{k + 1}{3^k} = \frac{1}{(1 - 1/3)^2} = \frac{9}{4}, so k42k+23k=2(9412313427)=211108=1154.\sum_{k \ge 4} \frac{2k + 2}{3^k} = 2\left(\frac{9}{4} - 1 - \frac{2}{3} - \frac{1}{3} - \frac{4}{27}\right) = 2 \cdot \frac{11}{108} = \frac{11}{54}.

Therefore P=13(16271154)=132154=754,P = \frac{1}{3}\left(\frac{16}{27} - \frac{11}{54}\right) = \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{21}{54} = \frac{7}{54}, and 100m+n=700+54=754.100m + n = 700 + 54 = 754.

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